Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change in response to buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Zendaya in “Dune Part Three”
Warner Bros.
The Globes split their top film prize into two genres, drama and comedy/musical and the line between them has always been drawn by strategy as much as tone. Remember, this is the same awards show that “The Martian” once won best comedy.
For the third year in a row, the comedy/musical side looks more competitive than its drama counterpart. We’re used to seeing it the other way around, and several major players still haven’t declared.
The race is still waiting on first reviews for a couple of contenders in the wings. Sources tell Variety that Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Three” held its first intimate, small-group screenings this past week. Early word is very positive.
No studio has a trickier sorting job than Amazon MGM Studios this year. It holds three contenders that could all plausibly claim the drama side: Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s “Project Hail Mary” with Ryan Gosling, Peter Farrelly’s “I Play Rocky,” which finished first runner-up for TIFF’s People’s Choice Award and Bassam Tariq’s critically acclaimed “Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother,” the Orion Pictures release starring Mahershala Ali as a devout hitman.
“Your Mother” is all but certain to run in drama. So expect at least one of the other two to go the comedy route, if only to keep the studio from splitting its own vote. Our bet is “Hail Mary” goes comedy, and “Rocky” goes drama.
Focus Features has a choice to make with “Obsession,” Curry Barker’s micro-budget possession thriller that has grossed more than $400 million worldwide. If the studio follows the “Get Out” (2017) and “The Substance” (2024) playbooks, many expect a comedy push. But assess the landscape, especially for breakout star Inde Navarrette, who looks primed for a best actress Oscar nom as a possessed young woman and this pundit starts to wonder — wouldn’t a drama run make more sense?
“Obsession” will likely find recognition in cinematic and box office achievement, and Navarrette should be nominated on either side of the house. Its best picture prospects face far steeper hurdles. I think the real question is where can she win?
Sandra Hüller in “Fatherland” and “Rose”
Mubi
Speaking of box office, what many may not realize is that films must officially submit for the category. Nothing lands on the ballot automatically, and at the 2025 Globes, Villeneuve’s team opted to keep “Dune: Part Two” out of the box office race and vie only for best picture (drama), where it landed a nomination.
Another development worth watching for is several studios are taking their animated feature contenders seriously enough to push well beyond that single category.
And Laika does have some Globes history on its side with “Missing Link” pulling off an upset win for animated feature in 2020, coincidentally over “Toy Story 4,” which ultimately won the Oscar.
Robert Pattinson in “Primetime,” “The Odyssey,” “Dune: Part Three” and “The Drama”
A24 / Universal Pictures / Warner Bros.
Start with Robert Pattinson, who has four movies in theaters this year — “The Drama,” “The Odyssey,” “Primetime” and “Dune: Part Three.” How many noms can he collect? For now, his turn as “To Catch a Predator” host Chris Hansen in Lance Oppenheim’s “Primetime” looks like his easiest path, in actor (drama), with “The Odyssey” offering another option in supporting actor alongside his co-star John Leguizamo. The front-runners in the actor (drama) category are Andrew Scott, playing the late Ian Charleson in Simon Stone’s “Elsinore” and Pattinson’s “Odyssey” co-star Matt Damon. Behind them, John Turturro (“The Only Living Pickpocket in New York”), Pedro Pascal (“Behemoth!”), Sebastian Stan (“Fjord”) and Anthony Ippolito (“I Play Rocky”) will fight for spots.
Pattinson isn’t the only big name with more than one ticket to the Hollywood party. Penélope Cruz is also in the hunt with two possible supporting actress bids, for “The Invite” and “La Bola Negra,” plus an actress (drama) play for Florian Zeller’s “Bunker,” opposite her real-life husband, Javier Bardem, who could join her with a drama actor nom of his own.
Hüller, meanwhile, can double up in drama actress with “Fatherland” and “Rose,” and she has a path in supporting actress for “Project Hail Mary” (and I guess “Digger?”). Nothing in the Globes rules stops a performer from landing two, three or four noms in the same year.
Variety’s predictions in every film category follow below. Not all category placements are confirmed, and all are subject to change.
The 84th Golden Globe nominations will be announced Monday, Dec. 7, with the ceremony, hosted by Nikki Glaser, set for Sunday, Jan. 10, 2027.
The list of Oscar predictions in all categories can be found here.
Variety parent company Penske Media Corporation owns Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Prods. in a joint venture with Eldridge.
Best Picture (Drama)
Image Credit: Melinda Sue Gordon
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Best Picture (Comedy or Musical)
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures
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Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Image Credit: Anthony Dickenson
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Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)
Image Credit: Jonathan Olley
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Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Agata Grzybowska
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Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)
Image Credit: A24
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Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Image Credit: Neon
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Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Image Credit: A24
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Best Director — Motion Picture
Image Credit: Niko Tavernise/Courtesy ADFC
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Best Screenplay — Motion Picture
Image Credit: ‘Fjord’ Courtesy of Tudor Panduru
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Original Score — Motion Picture
Image Credit: ©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection
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Original Song
Image Credit: ©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection
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Animated Feature
Image Credit: Laika
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Box Office and Cinematic Achievement
Image Credit: Glen Wilson/Lionsgate
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Non-English Language Film
Image Credit: Netflix
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